[guest 19-12-2013 12:00:52]:
Penney Company Inc
Penney (JCP 0.9%) stores showed light traffic over the weekend as the retailer races against time to drive customers back to its outlets. Most analysts approve of the company's plan to cut pricier brands and move back to the basics, but the question on if it will have an immediate impact during this holiday season is still up in the air. The bankruptcy filed by apparel seller Loehmann's today throws a spotlight back on JCP's own financial status. Loehmann's demise [url=http://kissthesky.net/coachfactory.php?product_id=93]is coach factory online real[/url] was attributable in part to the rise of discounters such as Ross Stores, TJX Companies, and Stein Mart a script JCP is trying to rewrite. Penney CEO Mike Ullman has been tapped as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
More retail analysts now see holiday season sales coming in weak after early projections from the NRF and ShopperTrak called for a 3% to 4% rise. A number of firms agree with Hedgeye that the level of promotional activity will be very damaging when Q4 reports start rolling in. Despite the broad carnage in the retail sector, there are some out performers. Discounters: Dollar General's increase in traffic and average basket size along with a decent quarter from Stein Mart could be confirming indicators that consumers are stepping down a bit with their shopping habits. Watch FDO, DLTR, FIVE, FRED, ALCS, GMAN, SMRT. Luxury: Tiffany (TIF +0.5%), Coach (COH 1.2%), and Ralph Lauren (RL 0.4%) are cruising through the retail season with demand and pricing intact. Powerful brands: Early channel checks on Lululemon (LULU 0.4%), Nike (NKE +0.1%), and Gap (GPS 1.2%) have been positive as consumers gravitate to what they know and like. E commerce stars: Visa (V 0.4%), MasterCard (MA +0.4%), eBay (EBAY +0.2%), Amazon (AMZN 0.8%), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS +0.3%), and Under Armour (UA +1.2%) are some of the companies tapped to benefit as mobile/online is factored in to counterbalance reads on weak store traffic. Penney (JCP 7.6%) is a $20 stock, according to Hedgeye. The retailer has upside to improve its embarrassingly low sales per square foot mark during the holiday season and continue online momentum. Penney (JCP) <a href="http://kissthesky.net/coachfactory.php?product_id=1069">coach handbags on sale at dillards</a> is as impressive as some are making it out to be. A look at the two year stack of comparable store sales shows November was down 27.3% which is only a minor improvement over Q3's 29.6% <a href="http://kissthesky.net/coachfactory.php?product_id=649">coach outlets stores</a> decline. Penney's cash burn rate still at a formidable level, the question still remains: Will Q4 sales accelerate fast enough? JCP 3.7% premarket in an abrupt turnaround. stand at alarming levels, according to Nomura Equity Research. By most accounts, the group didn't perform well over the Black Friday weekend after entering the holiday shopping season at high inventory levels. Retailers such as Macy's (M) and Gap (GPS) may have an edge with their strong online fulfillment programs, but the early starts to the shopping season exacerbate inventory issues. Some retail chains will start selling spring lines in late December forcing a more promotional stance on older items. On watch: AEO, ANF, ARO, JCP, JWN, KSS, URBN, LTD, APP, TLYS, GES, BKE, CHS, ASNA, CWTR, ANN, CBK, NWY, CACH, BODY, WTSL, CATO, BEBE, DDS.
Mobile takes large share as Cyber Monday sales jump 16%
Cyber Monday Internet sales climbed 16% from last year to a record $2.29B, Adobe estimates, with Internet transactions for the five day Thanksgiving shopping period jumping 26% to $7.4B. Sales from mobile devices soared 80% yesterday and accounted for 18.3% of the total. "This is the first holiday season where mobile is absolutely having its mark on overall retail <a href="http://kissthesky.net/coachfactory.php?product_id=91">is coach factory outlet online real</a> sales, whether that's from a smartphone or a tablet," says JMP Securities analyst Ron Josey The National Retail Federation expects Internet transactions to grow 15% to $82B this holiday season, much faster than the 3.9% increase that the NRF projects for total sales. More on Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales. Stocks: AMZN, EBAY, WMT, BBY, TGT, JCP, M, FDO, DG, DLTR, FIVE, SHLD, BIG, GME, COH, GPS, LULU, ANN, EXPR, URBN, COH ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, PBJ, RETL, PEJ, IYK, FXG, IYC, SCC, FXD, RHS, UCC, PMR, UGE, RCD, PSL, PSCC, SZK, FDIS, FSTA, PSCD, PEZ
Black Friday weekend winners and losers
Gap (GPS +2%), Lululemon (LULU +1.9%), and Best Buy (BBY +1.2%) all trade higher after retail channel checks indicate traffic and sales were strong during the extended Black Friday weekend. Old Navy showed the biggest week over week [url=http://kissthesky.net/coachfactory.php?product_id=734]mens coach outlet store online[/url] gain in market share, according to Placed. Lululemon's customer base came out in droves and men's products performed well, notes Janney Montgomery. At Best Buy, it wasn't the foot traffic that looked promising, but signs that online and mobile sales showed a significant year over year gain. Penney (JCP 3.6%).
Thanksgiving weekend sales fall
The amount of money that consumers spent over the Thanksgiving weekend is estimated to have slipped 2.7% to $57.4B, the National Retail Federation says. The drop is in contrast to estimates that Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales at brick and mortar stores rose 2.3%. The average consumer spent $407.02 over the whole weekend, down 3.9% from last year. The number of shoppers increased to 141M people from 139M. The fall in spending came after retailers warned of a difficult holiday season and was due to the aggressive bargains on offer, a trend that is expected to continue. However, the NRF maintained its forecast that retail sales will grow 3.9% for the whole holiday whole season. Online sales climbed 17.3% on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, ComScore estimates, noting that the latter day attracted a record $1.2B in spending. The research firm expects Internet sales to rise 16% for the whole of the holiday season. The most visited sites on Black Friday were those of Amazon (AMZN), eBay (EBAY) Walmart (WMT), Best Buy (BBY) and Target (TGT). Total e commerce sales hit $20.6B in the first 29 days of this holiday season, up 3.1% from last year, although this year includes more days. Today is Cyber Monday, which the NRF reckons will attract 131M shoppers vs 129M last year. Penney (JCP) and Macy's (M) among those who began related promotions yesterday. Target has gone further and created "Cyber Week." More on Thanksgiving sales. Tickers: FDO, DG, DLTR, FIVE, TGT, SHLD, BIG, GME, COH, GPS, LULU ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, PBJ, RETL, PEJ, IYK, FXG, IYC, SCC, FXD, RHS, UCC, PMR, UGE, RCD, PSL, PSCC, SZK, FDIS, FSTA, PSCD, PEZ
Thanksgiving, Black Friday sales edge up
Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales at brick and mortar stores rose 2.3% on year to $12.3B, ShopperTrak estimates. The research firm reiterates its forecast that sales for the whole of the [url=http://kissthesky.net/coachfactory.php?product_id=533]coach factory outlet online sale canada[/url] holiday season will increase 2.4%, the weakest growth since 2009. Foot traffic <a href="http://kissthesky.net/coachfactory.php?product_id=255">coach factory outlet store coupons</a> for both days grew 2.8% to over 1.07B store visits. Online sales +20% on Thanksgiving and +19% on Black Friday, says IBM. Mobile traffic accounted for almost 40% of all online visits on Friday. Mobile sales rose to 26% of total online sales on Thursday and were around 22% on Friday. Increased store openings on Thanksgiving seem to <a href="http://kissthesky.net/coachfactory.php?product_id=473">coach factory offer</a> have eaten into sales on Black Friday, while online transactions again took business away from physical purchases. Anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers came with plans of what they wanted to buy, with the result that there was much less impulse shopping. ETFs: XLP, XLY, VDC, XRT, VCR, RTH, PBJ, RETL, PEJ, IYK, FXG, IYC, SCC, FXD, RHS, UCC, PMR, UGE, RCD, PSL, PSCC, SZK, FDIS, FSTA, PSCD, PEZ
Macy the early winner vs. JC Penney
JC Penney (JCP) and Macy's (M) are "totally battling one other right now," Belus Capital Advisors CEO Brian Sozzi says. "We've seen JCP come out pretty aggressively in terms of their door busters [and] they've done decent traffic. But where [people] are shopping is the basic apparel section. The home department, with about 11% of JCP sales, looks like a virtual ghost town, pretty much as it has looked the entire year.""Macy's is doing what Macy's does best, driving a lot of 50 60% off signs and getting traffic on top brands. That customer, which is a higher income shopper, is shopping outside the basic area the watch section and the handbag section.""Early winner: M over JCP."
Black Friday deals draw the crowds on Thanksgiving Thursday
As has become an American tradition as ensconced as the Thanksgiving turkey, shoppers formed long queues in front of retail stores yesterday, with some even camping out, ahead of the doors opening for the Black Friday sales, which once again began on a Thursday. Penney (JCP) and Macy's (M) opened on Thanksgiving for the first time, while Kmart (SHLD), [url=http://kissthesky.net/coachfactory.php?product_id=526]coach factory sign up[/url] Old Navy (GPS) and Lord Taylor opened in the morning. The National Retail Federation has forecast that up to 140M consumers will go shopping over the long weekend, up a bit from 139.4M last year. IBISWorld has projected that total sales through Cyber Monday will rise 2.2% to $40.5B. Mobile traffic increased over 31% yesterday as smartphones accounted for more than 23% of all Internet traffic. By 6 pm, online sales were up 10% over last year. Cyber Monday sales are tapped to see +20% Y/Y sales growth. The ongoing channel shift away from brick and mortar becomes even more pronounced when auto, restaurants, and gas are backed out of retail sales tallies. Apparel sellers are forecast to be the hardest hit, although on trend names such as Under Armour (UA), [url=http://kissthesky.net/coachfactory.php?product_id=423]coach factory 50[/url] Macy's [url=http://kissthesky.net/coachfactory.php?product_id=624]coach outlet factory online sale[/url] (M), Gap (GPS), and Lululemon (LULU) should outperform. The positive read on e commerce sales bodes well for Amazon (AMZN), Retailmenot (SALE), eBay (EBAY), Overstock.xyzxpWNVgy